TIRI MASAWI
Namibia could generate about N$13 billion annually from trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) if it fully uses its export potential within the continent.
Globally, the country could unlock nearly N$222 billion in trade opportunities, according to a new national assessment report.
The findings suggest that while Namibia is already integrated into regional trade systems, significant untapped opportunities remain in exports, value addition and industrial development.
Namibia has the potential to earn about N$13 billion (approximately US$816 million) annually from the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and nearly N$222 billion (approximately US$3.9 billion) globally if it fully exploits its trade capacity.
These findings are contained in the Namibia Country Impact Assessment Report on the implementation of AfCFTA and the Accelerated Industrial Development for Africa (AIDA).
The report was launched last week by the Director General of the Kaire Mbuende, in partnership with the National Planning Commission, the African Union Development Agency-NEPAD, the AfCFTA Secretariat, the African Union Commission and the Japan International Cooperation Agency.
PILOT STUDY
Speaking at the launch, Mustafa Sakr said the assessment was conducted as a pilot study in five African countries.
“The study aims to identify the strengths, the opportunities and the challenges,” Sakr said.
He said the findings show strong potential for Namibia to benefit from AfCFTA, but only if key structural issues are addressed.
“So as captured by the detailed assessment report, the opportunities are very high,” he said. “Namibia could further benefit from the implementation of AfCFTA, provided that the required policy actions are put into effect to improve the availability of high-quality infrastructure, logistics and better integration in regional value chains and integrated corridors.”
WHAT THE AFCFTA OFFERS
The report states that AfCFTA gains are expected mainly from expanding existing trade relationships, while also laying the foundation for gradual diversification over time.
It notes that AfCFTA provides access to a unified continental market, while the AIDA framework focuses on strengthening supply-side capacity such as productive ability, value addition, skills, infrastructure and industrialisation.
“Based on the International Trade Centre (ITC) Trade Map, Namibia’s AfCFTA opportunity is significant, estimated at approximately $816 million in unrealised export potential within Africa and nearly $3.9 billion globally,” the report states.
It adds that these opportunities are concentrated in products already linked to Namibia’s production base, particularly fisheries and resource-linked exports.
KEY EXPORT DRIVERS
The assessment further notes that unworked diamonds remain Namibia’s largest export product, reflecting strong natural resource endowment and established systems.
“While current trade is highly concentrated within existing regional corridors, AfCFTA offers scope to deepen participation in regional value chains and expand downstream activities over time,” the report says.
It adds that Namibia is well positioned in terms of trade reliability and market penetration within existing high-demand destinations.
TRADE SYSTEMS SHOW READINESS
According to the assessment, Namibia’s trade facilitation systems are functional and relatively efficient.
“Trade facilitation systems are functional, with average customs clearance times of around four days relative to African and global averages of seven days, supported by established customs procedures and the use of digital platforms for declarations and processing,” the report states.
The report shows that Namibia’s intra-African exports have increased from about N$49 billion in 2022 to around N$52 billion in 2024.
However, it notes that trade remains highly concentrated geographically.
“About 90% of intra-African trade is conducted with neighbouring Southern African countries, reflecting proximity, established trade corridors and long-standing commercial relationships,” the assessment states.
It adds that South Africa, Botswana and Zambia account for most regional export demand, while imports are largely dominated by South Africa, with additional sourcing from Zambia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Morocco and Togo.
CALL FOR ACTION
Speaking at the launch, Kaire Mbuende described the assessment as a key milestone in Namibia’s development journey.
“It is a moment that reflects our collective commitment to turning Africa’s ambitions into action, and its vast potential into tangible development outcomes,” he said.
He added that Namibia’s participation in the pilot study reflects strong regional leadership.
However, he warned that the real test lies in implementation.
“The assessment is not an end in itself. It is a powerful tool designed to inform policy, guide investment and drive real change,” he said. “Its true value will be measured by how effectively we translate its insights into concrete reforms, stronger institutions and tangible outcomes.”
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