Namibia could gain up to N$800 billion in gross domestic product (GDP) over 25 years from the planned Venus Offshore oil project, according to a new Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA).
This is only one of several oil exploration projects the country is expected to experience if recent pronouncements by drilling companies about the availability of hydrocarbons in Namibia are anything to go by.
The Venus project alone is estimated to contribute between N$536 billion and N$800 billion to Namibia’s GDP over a minimum project lifetime of 25 years. Over the same period, the report says government revenue from taxes, levies and other direct or indirect payments could amount to between N$127 billion and N$229 billion.
The project is operated by TotalEnergies EP Namibia in partnership with QatarEnergy, Namcor and Impact Oil & Gas, and covers Block 2913B, located about 300 kilometres off the Lüderitz coast.
These are enormous figures that, if realised, could make a meaningful positive impact on the Namibian economy.
However, it is important to remain cognisant of the fact that the oil industry is heavily influenced by global geopolitical dynamics. Any instability or unforeseen events can significantly affect oil prices, either positively or negatively.
Against this backdrop, it is imperative that Namibia positions herself — and her people — to extract maximum benefit from this multibillion-dollar industry. We must avoid falling victim to the oil curse.
While the Venus project speaks of a 25-year production period and the potential creation of about 7 000 jobs, it must be acknowledged that employment in the oil industry is highly technical. At present, Namibia may not possess sufficient local skills to fill many of these positions.
It is therefore not too late for institutions of higher learning to begin developing programmes that respond directly to this anticipated boom. It would be the greatest betrayal if the oil industry arrives on our shores only for Namibians to be sidelined from most of the technical jobs.
Equally important is the need to look beyond the familiar, limited opportunities that often accompany large projects — such as hair salons, restaurants and small retail businesses. While these have their place, the future will be far brighter if Namibians are operating drill rigs, managing vessels and occupying key technical and managerial roles.
The oil industry offers competitive remuneration, with the potential to fundamentally change the lives of many Namibians.
Africa offers hard lessons on what happens when oil wealth is mismanaged. Countries such as Nigeria continue to grapple with unrest and environmental degradation, Libya’s oil boom failed to translate into sustainable national prosperity, and Equatorial Guinea remains resource-rich yet poverty-stricken. Closer to home, Angola is still struggling to implement a model that meaningfully empowers locals within its oil industry.
While these represent some of the continent’s worst-case scenarios, there are also positive examples elsewhere. Countries such as Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Canada have successfully channelled oil revenues into long-term national development.
As Namibia celebrates progress in its emerging oil industry, it must do so with a clear, deliberate plan — one that places national development at its centre.
Failure to do so risks leaving the country with nothing but regret when multinational companies eventually wind down operations and depart, taking the wealth with them.
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